This has become a go-to option for European policy makers. But the bloc has shown no hesitation to use bare-knuckle methods of its own, aggressively going after U. Like straight-up protectionism such as the threatened retaliatory measures against U. But Europe has been inconsistent in applying pressure, and market forces have been proved more decisive. To preserve its market position and undercut competitors, Russia built costly new pipelines and adopted mercantilist pricing. Ultimately, this distorts competition on the European gas market and undermines efforts to diversify, as GIS expert Dr.
Frank Umbach noted in a September report. Umbach noted in May Professor Colombatto predicted that Europe would likely end up accepting Chinese leadership rather than presenting an alternative — free trade and deregulation, which would attract more investment to Europe. Yet Europe is as passive today as China was in the 18th and 19th centuries, when Europe occupied most of Asia. GIS Dossier: Europe as a global player — the basics. General info Location. Report Dossier. Brexit defense defense spending European Union foreign policy foreign trade GIS Dossier infrastructure military nuclear weapons pipelines.
With the U. Chaos or flexibility? Military menu In November , Dr. Long-term forecasts show European militaries dropping into the global third tier source: macpixxel for GIS It also ramped up military spending, mostly on home security and badly neglected conventional forces. Economic power: trade Economically, the EU is a colossus, second only to China and larger than the U. Europe has fallen short of its ambition to reach free trade agreements with the rest of the world, but has still done much better than the U.
Military menu Economic power: trade Economic power: infrastructure. Watch video related The security risks of 5G. More on subject. Keeping up appearances on migration Brussels has come up with a bright idea to help slow the flow of refugees and migrants to Europe. If you thought the 6 billion euro deal with Turkey was misguided, take a close look at the European Commission's latest brainstorm — the 70 billion euro Migration Partnership.
With politicians seemingly determined not to notice, a systemic implosion may be inevitable. The government supports and promotes continued EU membership.
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However, the country is deeply split and the political parties are themselves divided, especially Mr. More on region. But how has the political landscape in the UK and among its European partners changed The issue has political ramifications for the EU as well.
Christopher Steele, the Man Behind the Trump Dossier
More on similar topics. Relations had been cooling for at least a decade, but this process is being expedited by the presidency of Donald Trump. Both sides seem It is hard to recall a period when so many fundamental geopolitical shifts have occurred just as societies, states and alliances in the region were all starting to fall apart. Four disruptive trends can be identified, any The United States, Russia, China and smaller states in possession of such arms are, at most, modernizing their arsenals.
North Korea and possibly Iran cannot be prevented from developing nuclear Insights delivered. A weekly summary, plus unique comments from Prince Michael of Liechtenstein. Suggested reports. GIS Dossier: Europe as a global player — looking east Europe is politically diffuse and poorly armed for a great power at a geopolitical crossroads. Now its mettle is being tested as Russia — and, to a lesser extent, Turkey Opinion: Defense is essential Every state above a certain size needs armed forces to defend itself. Methods for their use vary, ranging from the Swiss model of territorial defense to the blue-water navies, foreign alliances and overseas bases deployed by superpowers.
The one common element — essential to any sort of effective deterrence — Opinion: European Union must define its spheres of influence The EU is a mature, powerful bloc of nations that has vital interests outside its borders, especially in the Mediterranean and Baltic regions, in the Middle East and Africa.
Unless the bloc drops its pretense of inwardness and moves to define, articulate and defend its spheres of influence, the multiple Recent topics, shifts and disruptions. In quick succession, the debt crisis, the Ukraine crisis and The Trump administration accelerated this process, The region, one of the cradles of civilization, is going through a turbulent period of historic realignment.
Its powers are The leaked e-mails, some of which suggested that the D. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. At this point, a Clinton foreign-policy adviser, Laura Rosenberger, who had held various positions at the National Security Council and at the State Department during the Bush and Obama Administrations, grew seriously alarmed. Rosenberger, meanwhile, had no idea that the Clinton campaign had indirectly employed a Russia expert: Steele. Fusion briefed only Elias on the reports.
Simpson sent Elias nothing on paper—he was briefed orally. In the absence of live accusers or documentary evidence, such material is easy to dismiss, and can make the purveyor look sleazy. Elias broadly summarized some of the information to top campaign officials, including the campaign manager, Robby Mook, but Elias found much of the Kremlinology abstruse.
On July 7, , two days after Steele met in London with the F. Page was an odd choice for Trump. According to the recently released report by the Democratic minority on the House Intelligence Committee, the F. When Page gave his Moscow lecture, he declined to answer questions from the audience about whether he would be meeting Russian officials. Soon afterward, Steele filed another memo to Fusion, alleging that Page had indeed met with Russians close to Putin, as part of an ongoing effort by the Russians to cultivate sympathetic Trump aides.
Sechin had purportedly proposed to Page increasing U. A subsequent Steele memo claimed that Sechin was so eager to get U. Page has denied any wrongdoing. In a congressional interview in November, , he initially said that he had not met with any Russian officials during his July trip. The dossier may or may not have erred in its naming of specific officials, but it was clearly prescient in its revelation that during the Presidential campaign a covert relationship had been established between Page and powerful Russians who wanted U.
Trump and his advisers have repeatedly denied having colluded with Russians. Flynn resigned from that post almost immediately, after it was revealed that he had engaged in conversations with the Russian Ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, about U. On July 26, , after WikiLeaks disseminated the D.
The Kremlin apparently spent about a million dollars a month to fund Internet trolls working round-the-clock shifts in a run-down office building in St. The Russian operation also involved political activism inside the U. In England, Steele kept cranking out memos, but he was growing anxious about the lack of response from the F. As the summer wore on, he confided in an American friend, Jonathan Winer, a Democratic lawyer and foreign-policy specialist who was working at the State Department.
By hacking our computers and using WikiLeaks to disseminate the information—it was an infection. He thought it would have really bad consequences for the U. He thought it would destabilize these countries. He wanted the U. Winer, who encouraged Steele to keep sending the reports, estimated that he had received more than a hundred and twenty of them by He and others at the State Department found the research full of insights. Winer recalls Victoria Nuland, the top official overseeing U.
Occasionally, his sources appeared to exaggerate their knowledge or influence.
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But Steele also highlighted some players and back channels between Russia and Ukraine who became important later. So the reports had value. In September, , Steele briefed Winer on the dossier at a Washington hotel. Winer prepared a two-page summary and shared it with a few senior State Department officials. For several days, Finer weighed whether or not to burden Kerry with the information. Eventually, he decided that, since others knew, his boss should know, too. He asked if F. She told Winer to tell Steele to take his dossier to the F.
The so-called Deep State, it seems, hardly jumped into action against Trump. Obama Administration officials were mindful of the Hatch Act, which forbids government employees to use their positions to influence political elections. So they backed away. Steele believed that the Russians were engaged in the biggest electoral crime in U. Likening it to the attack on Pearl Harbor, he felt that President Obama needed to make a speech to alert the country. He also thought that Obama should privately warn Putin that unless he stopped meddling the U.
According to an article by the Washington Post , that month the C. Robert Hannigan, then the head of the U. The content of these intercepts has not become public. But, as the Post noted, the C. In the meantime, the White House was unsure how to respond. But Obama and his top advisers did not want to take any action against Russia that might provoke a cyber war. And because it was so close to the election, they were wary about doing anything that could be construed as a ploy to help Clinton.
All along, Trump had dismissed talk of Russian interference as a hoax, claiming that no one really knew who had hacked the D. The intelligence community had recently informed the Gang of Eight—the leaders of both parties and the ranking representatives on the Senate and House Intelligence Committees—that Russia was acting on behalf of Trump. After that, Obama, instead of issuing a statement himself, said nothing. Steele anxiously asked his American counterparts what else could be done to alert the country. One option was to go to the press. Contemporaneous F. In August, , two F. Page suggested that they could take their time, because there was little reason to worry that Clinton would lose.
The European Union is grappling with its need to become a new kind of world power
When excerpts of these texts first became public, Trump defenders such as Trey Gowdy seized on them as proof that the F. But a reading of the full text chain makes it clear that the agents were discussing whether or not they needed to focus urgently on investigating collusion. In late summer, Fusion set up a series of meetings, at the Tabard Inn, in Washington, between Steele and a handful of national-security reporters.
The sessions were off the record, but because Steele has since disclosed having participated in them I can confirm that I attended one of them. He did not distribute his dossier, provided no documentary evidence, and was so careful about guarding his sources that there was virtually no way to follow up. At the time, neither The New Yorker nor any other news organization ran a story about the allegations.
Inevitably, though, word of the dossier began to spread through Washington. A former State Department official recalls a social gathering where he danced around the subject with the British Ambassador, Sir Kim Darroch. James Comey, then the F. In a normal political climate, the U. But it was almost instantly buried by two other shocking news events.
Steele finally met again with the F. This time, he went to Rome to speak with a team of agents, who avidly asked him for everything he had. The news generated by the publication of the D. On July 31, , the F. Orbis remained under contract to Fusion, and Steele helped the F. He did request compensation for travelling to Rome, but he never received any. Soon after the meeting in Rome, the F. Not only did it claim that the F. Steele had never met Blumenthal, either, but he dutifully jotted down the chain of custody on the cover of the report before sending it on to the F.
As the election approached, the relationship between Steele and the F. He was anguished that the American voting public remained in the dark. In a memo to the F. Steele was therefore shocked when, on October 28, , Comey sent a letter to congressional leaders: the F. He said that these e-mails required immediate review. To Steele, the F.
And, given what he—and very few others—knew about the F. The F. Inside the Clinton campaign, John Podesta, the chairman, was stunned by the news that the F. Far from a secret campaign weapon, Steele turned out to be a secret kept from the campaign. On November 8, , Steele stayed up all night, watching the U.
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A staff memo went out forgiving anyone who wanted to stay home and hide under his duvet. The news had one immediate consequence for Steele. He believed that Trump now posed a national-security threat to his country, too. He soon shared his research with a senior British official. The election was over, but Steele kept trying to alert American authorities. Wood, an unpaid informal adviser to Orbis, and Steele agreed that McCain, the hawkish chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, should know what was going on.
McCain was deeply concerned. He asked a former aide, David Kramer, to go to England to meet Steele. Kramer, a Russia expert who had served at the State Department, went over the dossier with Steele for hours. After Kramer promised to share the document only with McCain, Steele arranged for Kramer to receive a copy in Washington.
A lawyer for Kramer maintains that Kramer never considered getting Trump to resign and never promised to show the dossier only to McCain. On December 9th, McCain handed Comey a copy of the dossier. On January 5, , it became clear that at least two Washingtonians remained in the dark about the dossier: the President and the Vice-President. We had no information on collusion.
All we saw was what the Russians were doing. The main purpose of the Oval Office meeting was to run through a startling report that the U. The highly classified report included a two-page appendix about the dossier. Comey briefed the group on it. Comey also mentioned some of the sexual details in the dossier, including the alleged golden-showers kompromat. Obama stayed silent. The Democrats, far from being engaged in a political conspiracy with Steele, had been politically paralyzed by their high-mindedness. He also said that the F. Someone asked how intelligence officials planned to handle the dossier with Trump.
He would do it on his own, he said, to avoid unnecessary embarrassment. In fact, if Comey had wanted to use the dossier as leverage, he could have done so months earlier, before Trump was elected, since it had been in the F. But the F. Steele has told friends that this approach left him exposed. Unsurprisingly, the salacious news leaked in no time.
Four days after Comey briefed Trump, CNN reported that the President-elect had been briefed on a scandalous dossier supplied by a former British intelligence operative. BuzzFeed has declined to reveal its source for the dossier, but both Orbis and Fusion have denied supplying it. In England, reporters peered in his windows and tracked down his relatives, including the siblings of his deceased wife. Two reporters from RT, a Russian state news agency, seemed especially aggressive in staking out his house.
In response, Steele and his family went into hiding. They reportedly left their three cats with neighbors, and Steele grew a beard. BuzzFeed has argued that the content was not libelous. Pretrial maneuvering in the libel case has resulted in a court ordering Gubarev to disclose whether he or his companies are under criminal investigation. In Russia, there were rumors of a more primitive kind of justice taking place. One possibility that has been mentioned is Oleg Erovinkin, a former F. On December 26, , Erovinkin was found dead in his car. No official cause of death has been cited.
No evidence has emerged that Erovinkin was a Steele source, and in fact Special Counsel Mueller is believed to be investigating a different death that is possibly related to the dossier. A representative for Mueller declined to answer questions for this article. Meanwhile, around the same time that Erovinkin died, Russian authorities charged a cybersecurity expert and two F.
In the spring of , after eight weeks in hiding, Steele gave a brief statement to the media, announcing his intention of getting back to work. If what the source heard was true, then a foreign power was exercising pivotal influence over U.
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As fantastical as the memo sounds, subsequent events could be said to support it. In a humiliating public spectacle, Trump dangled the post before Romney until early December, then rejected him. There are plenty of domestic political reasons that Trump may have turned against Romney. Roger Stone, the longtime Trump aide, has suggested that Trump was vengefully tormenting Romney, and had never seriously considered him. Romney declined to comment. The White House said that he was never a first choice for the role and declined to comment about any communications that the Trump team may have had with Russia on the subject.
In , he brokered a historic partnership between ExxonMobil and Rosneft. After the election, Congress imposed additional sanctions on Russia, in retaliation for its interference, but Trump and Tillerson have resisted enacting them. But did Steele lie? The Justice Department has not filed charges against him.
The most serious accusation these critics make is that the F. If true, this would be a major abuse of power. His allegation that the Kremlin favored Trump in and was offering his campaign dirt on Hillary has been borne out. So has his claim that the Kremlin and WikiLeaks were working together to release the D. Steele may have named the wrong oil-company official, but, according to recent congressional disclosures, he was correct that a top Rosneft executive talked to Page about a payoff.
And, of course, Mueller has indicted thirteen Russian nationals for waging the kind of digital warfare that Steele had warned about. He also sued BuzzFeed. Cohen recently acknowledged to the Times that he personally paid Stephanie Clifford, a porn star who goes by the name Stormy Daniels, a hundred and thirty thousand dollars; it is widely believed that Trump and Clifford had a secret sexual relationship. In London, Steele is back at work, attending to other cases. Orbis has landed several new clients as a result of the publicity surrounding the dossier. The week after it became public, the company received two thousand job applications.
John Sipher, the former C. Professionals need to look at travel records, phone records, bank records, foreign police-service cameras, and check it all out. It will take professional investigators to run it to ground. A Reporter at Large. March 12, Issue. By Jane Mayer March 5, Recommended Stories. Sign in. Get the best of The New Yorker in your in-box every day.